Chinese, U.S. presidents meet in London on important issues
The meeting yesterday between Barack Obama and Hu Jintao, his Chinese counterpart, on the sidelines of the G20 summit had been described by some as “the G2” and marked the first encounter between the two men.
During the meeting Mr Hu stressed China's commitment to strengthen macroeconomic control and expand domestic demand, the White House said. The two leaders agreed to work together to renew world economic growth, strengthen the financial system, and establish a ”strategic and economic dialogue” group that would first meet in Washington later this year. The White House also announced that Mr Obama would visit China in the second half of the year.
But with China demonstrating that it now wants to play a much more decisive role in international economic affairs, their meeting may have also set the tone for the rest of the London summit.
While talk of an emerging “G2” ignores the increasingly multilateral basis of financial diplomacy, it does reflect the reality that on a growing range of international issues, little can happen without agreement between the US and China.
For much of the build-up to the G20 summit, China was a quiet participant. However, in recent days China has launched a series of initiatives which demonstrate a desire to move centre-stage. Zhou Xiaochuan, Chinese central bank president, called last week for the eventual replacement of the US dollar as the global reserve currency.
Meanwhile, ahead of the summit China has established Rmb650bn ($95bn, ?72bn, £66bn) worth of currency swaps with Indonesia, Belarus, Malaysia, Argentina, Hong Kong and South Korea – all of which indicate a more confident diplomacy and a larger future role in international finance for the Chinese currency.
The more assertive stance also reflects anger building up in China about criticism that its large current account surplus and reserves helped create the crisis and the realisation that its huge holdings of US bonds give it little direct leverage over US policy.
“In my 16 years of covering China I have never seen the country approach an international forum in such a proactive way,” says Dong Tao, economist at Credit Suisse. “China has traditionally been passive on the international stage, being a listener rather than an opinion leader, but this time it's different, China wants to make sure [its] voice is being heard.”
On the IMF issue, China has been under pressure from the US and the UK to make a substantial contribution to boosting the Fund's coffers, similar to the $100bn already pledged by Japan and the European Union.
China initially pushed back strongly against the idea, arguing that it was still a poor country. Yet over the last two weeks the Chinese line has softened somewhat, prompting speculation that it will inject substantial new funding.
However, Chinese officials have also made clear that their condition is accelerated reform of the IMF to boost China's voting rights. Moreover, Hu Xiaolian, deputy governor of the central bank, said last week that a quicker way for the IMF to raise new funds might be for it to issue bonds that China and other countries would buy.
“Having made these points forcefully, the Chinese now realise they would gain a tremendous moral advantage by appearing flexible and providing more resources to the IMF at a critical time for the institution and the world economy,” says Eswar Prasad, a professor at Cornell University and former head of the IMF's China division.
Observers had been watching closely the conversation about China's ideas for a new global reserve currency using an IMF currency basket. But the issue was not raised in yesterday's meeting.
Although the same idea is being pushed by Russia and has support from other developing economies, some observers do not believe that China will lobby too hard at the summit for the proposal.
美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)与中国国家主席胡锦涛昨日在G20峰会期间举行的会晤，被某些人形容为“G2”。这也是他们二人首次见面。
白宫方面表示，胡锦涛在会谈期间强调，中国致力于加强宏观经济调控，扩大内需。两位领导人同意共同努力，以求恢复世界经济增长，强化金融体系，并建立一个“战略和经济对话”小组，该小组将于今年晚些时候在华盛顿召开首次会议。白宫方面还宣布，奥巴马将于今年下半年访问中国。
但是，随着中国表现出它现在想要在国际经济事务中扮演更具决定性的角色，奥巴马与胡锦涛的会晤也许还为整个伦敦峰会定下了基调。
尽管有关“G2”脱颖而出的说法忽视了金融外交日趋多边化的根基，但它的确反映了这样一种现实，即在越来越多的国际问题上，若美中之间不能达成协议，那就很难有所作为。
在G20峰会筹备期间，中国大部分时间是一个安静的参与者。不过，近日中国发起了一系列倡议，展现出该国有意迈向中心舞台。中国央行行长周小川上周呼吁，最终取代美元作为全球储备货币的角色。
与此同时，在峰会前夕，中国与印尼、白俄罗斯、马来西亚、阿根廷、香港和韩国签署了价值6500亿元人民币（950亿美元）的货币互换协议，这些都显示出一种更为自信的外交，以及让人民币未来在国际金融中扮演更大角色。
更为自信的姿态，也反映了中国国内正在蓄积的愤怒。这种愤怒一方面针对外界有关中国巨额经常账户盈余和外汇储备帮助引发了当前危机的批评，另一方面也是因为意识到，持有大量美国债券，不能让中国拥有多少对美国政策的直接影响力。
“在我研究中国的16年中，我从未见过中国以如此主动积极的方式对待一个国际论坛，”瑞信(Credit Suisse)经济学家陶冬表示。“传统上，中国在国际舞台上是被动的，是一个听众，而不是意见领袖，但这次不同了，中国想要确保外界听到自己的声音。”
在国际货币基金组织(IMF)问题上，中国受到美英两国的压力，要求它为充实IMF财力做出重大贡献，类似于日本和欧盟已经承诺的1000亿美元。
中国最初强烈反对这个主意，辩称自己仍是一个穷国。但过去两周，中国的语气已有所放软，促使外界猜测该国将拿出大笔新资金。
不过，中国官员也已表明，他们的条件是加快改革IMF，增加中国的投票权。此外，中国央行副行长胡晓炼上周表示，IMF筹集新资金的更快方式，也许是发行债券，由中国和其它国家买下这些债券。
“在有力地提出这些主张后，中国人现在意识到，如果他们展现出灵活性，在IMF乃至世界经济的关键时刻为IMF提供更多资源，那么他们将获得巨大的道德优势，”美国康奈尔大学(Cornell University)教授、IMF中国部前主任埃斯瓦•普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)表示。
观察家们曾密切关注中国的设想，即采用IMF货币篮子创建一种新的全球储备货币，是否会成为奥巴马与胡锦涛之间的话题之一。但昨日的会谈并未提及这一议题。
尽管这一设想也得到俄罗斯的推动，并得到其它发展中经济体的支持，但一些观察家并不认为中国将在伦敦峰会期间大力游说这个提议。